Roulette Wolfie Ladder version X - Last updated: October 3, 2026
84% win rate based on all 980 runs ( SEE results for more details )
this is my trial / work in progress version of the wolfie ladder system. see version D for the full system with recovery.
the goal is trying to get a system with small bets on a elecronic roulette table with min bet $3 and max be $250 on a dozen bet.
update 10/01/2026:
removed the waiting for a win for stage 1.5 and stage 2.5 seemed to make no notibale difference in the win rate. also added database to save the runs and display the win rate
on the results page. Also removed step 7 to keep the system simple and fast we have a 5% chance of hitting this but we will recover it.
see version A for having that step included back in.
update 10/02/2026: removed step 14 to keep the system simple and fast we have a 5% chance of hitting this but we will recover it.
see version B for having that step included back in.
removed step 22 ( see version C for having that step included back in)
if loosing step 21 and not bankrupt reset the ladder and start over on stage 3 .
Reason being that step 22 had a 31% chance of winning but the chances of winning the stages in the ladder 10 times is 68% . you have a better chance of getting the money back doing the ladder.
People keep misunderstanding what I actually built, so here is the truth in plain English: I am not a gambler — I am a programmer.
I did not sit there playing 10,000 roulette games
like some guy with a lucky rabbit foot. I wrote a program that runs the entire Wolfie Ladder — all 3 stages, all 21 steps — across 50 to 300 simultaneous games
on a single page,
and then I repeated that whole batch 10,000 times. That is how you get a real statistical picture. That is how you reach a ~90% win rate. Not vibes. Not superstition.
Not “progressions” like Fibonacci that blow up the moment variance sneezes. The Wolfie Ladder is engineered to survive streaks, recover losses, and beat the distribution curve —
and I tested it by running 10,000+ full sequences in under 30 minutes, not by hand playing one spin at a time. If people think I sat there clicking red/black like a zombie,
they really do not understand who they are talking to.
When i first made this system luck i guess was on my side because the first few hundred times i was playing it i was winning at a rate of 91% of the time
but as i kept running it more and more times the win rate started to drop and now it is at ~80% .
And here’s the part people really don’t understand: the Wolfie Ladder wins even when the game‑level win rate is losing.
For example — in one of the sequences on the active tab, the system played 92 total games. Out of those:
38 wins
54 losses
Including a brutal streak where it lost every single bet from #52 through #67
That’s 16 consecutive losses in the middle of the run.
And despite that?
Despite losing more games than it won?
Despite eating a variance spike that would vaporize Fibonacci, Martingale, or any “pro gambler” strategy?
It still finished the sequence up +$100.
That’s the point.
The Ladder doesn’t care about “win more than you lose.”
It cares about sequence structure, distribution recovery, and controlled escalation.
It’s engineered to survive streaks, absorb damage, and still exit the sequence profitable — even when the raw win/loss ratio looks terrible.
This is why the system works.
This is why the win rate stabilizes around ~78.2% across 10,000 full trials.
Not because it wins every spin — but because it wins the sequence.
THE WOLFIE LADDER SYSTEM (Step-by-Step)
CLICK HERE IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE REASONING BEHIND THESE STEPS
STAGE 1:
1️⃣ Bet on two dozens, $3 each (total $6). If win → net +$3, reset ladder, back to Step 1. If lose → Step 2.
2️⃣ Bet on two dozens, $9 each (total $18). Win → net +$3 ($9 minus the $6 lost on Step 1), reset. Lose → Step 3.
3️⃣ Bet $14 on the first dozen. Win → net +$4 ($28 minus the $24 already lost), reset. Lose → Step 4.
4️⃣ Bet $21 on the first dozen. Win → net +$4 ($42 minus the $38 already lost), reset. Lose → Step 5.
5️⃣ Bet $28 on the first dozen. Win → net −$3 ($56 minus the $59 already lost), reset. Lose → Step 6.
6️⃣ Bet $42 on the first dozen. Win → net −$3 ($84 minus the $87 already lost), reset. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 90, then Step 8.
7️⃣(Removed in Version B. It only increased Stage‑1 probability by ~2%, but added a heavy 45‑unit cost. Cutting it keeps the system simpler, faster, and far less volatile. We still have a ~5% chance of hitting this loss, but the ladder easily recovers it.)
STAGE 2:
8️⃣ Bet $10 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 8. Lose → Step 9. ( net win at this step is $10 )
9️⃣ Bet $16 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 10. ( net win at this step is $12 )
🔟 Bet $24 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 11. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣1️⃣ Bet $36 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 12. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣2️⃣ Bet $54 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 13. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣3️⃣ Bet $81 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 300, then Step 15. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣4️⃣ (Removed in Version C. It only increased Stage‑2 probability by ~2%, but added a heavy 122‑unit cost.
STAGE 3:
1️⃣5️⃣ Bet $25 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 15. Lose → Step 16.
1️⃣6️⃣ Bet $40 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 17.
1️⃣7️⃣ Bet $60 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 18.
1️⃣8️⃣ Bet $90 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 19.
1️⃣9️⃣ Bet $130 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 20.
2️⃣0️⃣ Bet $190 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 21.
2️⃣1️⃣ Bet $250 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 15.
This system was build using 80 diffent ai agents across 8 LLM models to test the best possible system for roulette using lupopedia AI platform.
The programmer captain wolfie (Eric) was too board playing just one game at a time so programmed this to play up to 500 games all at once, that way can play thousands of times a minute and find the best stratagy that holds up . .
Want the full story? Check out the Patreon post for the complete dialog between Captain Wolfie, Grok, and the mischievous Lilith!
Why my versions are A, B, C instead of major.minor.patch
Because the traditional versioning system — major.minor.patch — is meaningless for what I’m doing here.
I’m not shipping software releases.
I’m iterating behavioral variants of a probability engine.
Each version (A, B, C… all the way to ZZ if I want) represents a distinct ladder logic, a distinct recovery pattern, a distinct volatility profile, and a distinct mathematical personality.
These aren’t “patches.”
These aren’t “minor updates.”
These are forks of logic.
Version A behaves one way.
Version B behaves another way.
Version C might remove a step, add a step, rebalance a stage, or change the volatility curve entirely.
Using semantic versioning (4.0.96, 4.0.97, etc.) would imply these are incremental changes to the same system — but they’re not.
They’re parallel universes.
So I use lettered versions because:
They’re simple
They’re human-readable
They reflect behavior, not “patch level”
They let me branch logic infinitely (A → B → C → … → Z → AA → AB → … → ZZ)
They match how I actually think about the system
In other words:
Version A is a creature.
Version B is a different creature.
Version C is another creature.
Letters make more sense for creatures than numbers.
Probability Reality Check
American wheel dozen loss probability stays the same on every spin: about 68.42% to lose, 31.58% to hit your dozen. Even after 10 or 15 losses in a row, the next spin is still roughly 1/3 to win, 2/3 to lose. This ladder doesn't pretend the odds improve—it only adjusts stake size so that, when you do finally win, you aim to recover with the progression. The house edge is still there; this is about controlled exposure, not guaranteed profit.
500-Round Simulation (American Wheel Model)
MySQL connected to collab52_salessyntax on localhost. This run was saved to wolfie_ladder_runs.
Every time this page loads it simulates 500 games using the WOLFIE Ladder exactly as defined here or stops if you win $100+ How did you do? If the run ended in the cliff, click here to try again and generate a fresh 500-game sequence. Saved runs are listed on wolfie_ladder_results.php.
Below is one 500-bet run. Each roll uses the real American wheel odds (12/38 for single dozen). Every time a win hits, we reset or loop based on rules.
| # | Bet | Wheel | Result | Bank | Next Step | Mode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 each on two dozens | 10 | Win | 1,503.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 2 | 3 each on two dozens | 15 | Win | 1,506.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 3 | 3 each on two dozens | 0 | Loss | 1,500.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 4 | 9 each on two dozens | 15 | Win | 1,509.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 5 | 3 each on two dozens | 18 | Win | 1,512.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 6 | 3 each on two dozens | 32 | Loss | 1,506.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 7 | 9 each on two dozens | 0 | Loss | 1,488.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 8 | 14 on first dozen | 25 | Loss | 1,474.00 | 4 | Step 3 |
| 9 | 21 on first dozen | 15 | Loss | 1,453.00 | 5 | Step 4 |
| 10 | 28 on first dozen | 19 | Loss | 1,425.00 | 6 | Step 5 |
| 11 | 42 on first dozen | 20 | Loss | 1,383.00 | 8 | Step 6 |
| 12 | 10 each on two dozens | 15 | Win | 1,393.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 13 | 10 each on two dozens | 32 | Loss | 1,373.00 | 9 | Step 8 |
| 14 | 16 on first dozen | 3 | Win | 1,405.00 | 8 | Step 9 |
| 15 | 10 each on two dozens | 7 | Win | 1,415.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 16 | 10 each on two dozens | 4 | Win | 1,425.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 17 | 10 each on two dozens | 11 | Win | 1,435.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 18 | 10 each on two dozens | 14 | Win | 1,445.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 19 | 10 each on two dozens | 19 | Win | 1,455.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 20 | 10 each on two dozens | 31 | Loss | 1,435.00 | 9 | Step 8 |
| 21 | 16 on first dozen | 22 | Loss | 1,419.00 | 10 | Step 9 |
| 22 | 24 on first dozen | 2 | Win | 1,467.00 | 8 | Step 10 |
| 23 | 10 each on two dozens | 17 | Win | 1,477.00 | 1 | Step 8 |
| 24 | 3 each on two dozens | 33 | Loss | 1,471.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 25 | 9 each on two dozens | 33 | Loss | 1,453.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 26 | 14 on first dozen | 12 | Win | 1,481.00 | 1 | Step 3 |
| 27 | 3 each on two dozens | 17 | Win | 1,484.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 28 | 3 each on two dozens | 4 | Win | 1,487.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 29 | 3 each on two dozens | 36 | Loss | 1,481.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 30 | 9 each on two dozens | 0 | Loss | 1,463.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 31 | 14 on first dozen | 3 | Win | 1,491.00 | 1 | Step 3 |
| 32 | 3 each on two dozens | 22 | Win | 1,494.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 33 | 3 each on two dozens | 12 | Win | 1,497.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 34 | 3 each on two dozens | 24 | Win | 1,500.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 35 | 3 each on two dozens | 10 | Win | 1,503.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 36 | 3 each on two dozens | 3 | Win | 1,506.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 37 | 3 each on two dozens | 27 | Loss | 1,500.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 38 | 9 each on two dozens | 29 | Loss | 1,482.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 39 | 14 on first dozen | 30 | Loss | 1,468.00 | 4 | Step 3 |
| 40 | 21 on first dozen | 13 | Loss | 1,447.00 | 5 | Step 4 |
| 41 | 28 on first dozen | 6 | Win | 1,503.00 | 1 | Step 5 |
| 42 | 3 each on two dozens | 10 | Win | 1,506.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 43 | 3 each on two dozens | 9 | Win | 1,509.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 44 | 3 each on two dozens | 23 | Win | 1,512.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 45 | 3 each on two dozens | 31 | Loss | 1,506.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 46 | 9 each on two dozens | 33 | Loss | 1,488.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 47 | 14 on first dozen | 2 | Win | 1,516.00 | 1 | Step 3 |
| 48 | 3 each on two dozens | 3 | Win | 1,519.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 49 | 3 each on two dozens | 0 | Loss | 1,513.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 50 | 9 each on two dozens | 17 | Win | 1,522.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 51 | 3 each on two dozens | 16 | Win | 1,525.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 52 | 3 each on two dozens | 14 | Win | 1,528.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 53 | 3 each on two dozens | 11 | Win | 1,531.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 54 | 3 each on two dozens | 00 | Loss | 1,525.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 55 | 9 each on two dozens | 15 | Win | 1,534.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 56 | 3 each on two dozens | 13 | Win | 1,537.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 57 | 3 each on two dozens | 7 | Win | 1,540.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 58 | 3 each on two dozens | 12 | Win | 1,543.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 59 | 3 each on two dozens | 5 | Win | 1,546.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 60 | 3 each on two dozens | 26 | Loss | 1,540.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 61 | 9 each on two dozens | 23 | Win | 1,549.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 62 | 3 each on two dozens | 34 | Loss | 1,543.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 63 | 9 each on two dozens | 32 | Loss | 1,525.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 64 | 14 on first dozen | 26 | Loss | 1,511.00 | 4 | Step 3 |
| 65 | 21 on first dozen | 24 | Loss | 1,490.00 | 5 | Step 4 |
| 66 | 28 on first dozen | 20 | Loss | 1,462.00 | 6 | Step 5 |
| 67 | 42 on first dozen | 20 | Loss | 1,420.00 | 8 | Step 6 |
| 68 | 10 each on two dozens | 5 | Win | 1,430.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 69 | 10 each on two dozens | 36 | Loss | 1,410.00 | 9 | Step 8 |
| 70 | 16 on first dozen | 10 | Win | 1,442.00 | 8 | Step 9 |
| 71 | 10 each on two dozens | 19 | Win | 1,452.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 72 | 10 each on two dozens | 12 | Win | 1,462.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 73 | 10 each on two dozens | 35 | Loss | 1,442.00 | 9 | Step 8 |
| 74 | 16 on first dozen | 1 | Win | 1,474.00 | 8 | Step 9 |
| 75 | 10 each on two dozens | 0 | Loss | 1,454.00 | 9 | Step 8 |
| 76 | 16 on first dozen | 34 | Loss | 1,438.00 | 10 | Step 9 |
| 77 | 24 on first dozen | 21 | Loss | 1,414.00 | 11 | Step 10 |
| 78 | 36 on first dozen | 00 | Loss | 1,378.00 | 12 | Step 11 |
| 79 | 54 on first dozen | 4 | Win | 1,486.00 | 8 | Step 12 |
| 80 | 10 each on two dozens | 29 | Loss | 1,466.00 | 9 | Step 8 |
| 81 | 16 on first dozen | 25 | Loss | 1,450.00 | 10 | Step 9 |
| 82 | 24 on first dozen | 35 | Loss | 1,426.00 | 11 | Step 10 |
| 83 | 36 on first dozen | 6 | Win | 1,498.00 | 8 | Step 11 |
| 84 | 10 each on two dozens | 23 | Win | 1,508.00 | 8 | Step 8 |
| 85 | 10 each on two dozens | 35 | Loss | 1,488.00 | 9 | Step 8 |
| 86 | 16 on first dozen | 00 | Loss | 1,472.00 | 10 | Step 9 |
| 87 | 24 on first dozen | 34 | Loss | 1,448.00 | 11 | Step 10 |
| 88 | 36 on first dozen | 4 | Win | 1,520.00 | 1 | Step 11 |
| 89 | 3 each on two dozens | 12 | Win | 1,523.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 90 | 3 each on two dozens | 34 | Loss | 1,517.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 91 | 9 each on two dozens | 21 | Win | 1,526.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 92 | 3 each on two dozens | 16 | Win | 1,529.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 93 | 3 each on two dozens | 29 | Loss | 1,523.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 94 | 9 each on two dozens | 1 | Win | 1,532.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 95 | 3 each on two dozens | 24 | Win | 1,535.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 96 | 3 each on two dozens | 23 | Win | 1,538.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 97 | 3 each on two dozens | 27 | Loss | 1,532.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 98 | 9 each on two dozens | 13 | Win | 1,541.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 99 | 3 each on two dozens | 7 | Win | 1,544.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 100 | 3 each on two dozens | 19 | Win | 1,547.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 101 | 3 each on two dozens | 9 | Win | 1,550.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 102 | 3 each on two dozens | 24 | Win | 1,553.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 103 | 3 each on two dozens | 6 | Win | 1,556.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 104 | 3 each on two dozens | 9 | Win | 1,559.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 105 | 3 each on two dozens | 30 | Loss | 1,553.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 106 | 9 each on two dozens | 33 | Loss | 1,535.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 107 | 14 on first dozen | 27 | Loss | 1,521.00 | 4 | Step 3 |
| 108 | 21 on first dozen | 8 | Win | 1,563.00 | 1 | Step 4 |
| 109 | 3 each on two dozens | 29 | Loss | 1,557.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 110 | 9 each on two dozens | 11 | Win | 1,566.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 111 | 3 each on two dozens | 13 | Win | 1,569.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 112 | 3 each on two dozens | 2 | Win | 1,572.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 113 | 3 each on two dozens | 00 | Loss | 1,566.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 114 | 9 each on two dozens | 23 | Win | 1,575.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 115 | 3 each on two dozens | 2 | Win | 1,578.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 116 | 3 each on two dozens | 34 | Loss | 1,572.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 117 | 9 each on two dozens | 36 | Loss | 1,554.00 | 3 | Step 2 |
| 118 | 14 on first dozen | 24 | Loss | 1,540.00 | 4 | Step 3 |
| 119 | 21 on first dozen | 7 | Win | 1,582.00 | 1 | Step 4 |
| 120 | 3 each on two dozens | 19 | Win | 1,585.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 121 | 3 each on two dozens | 1 | Win | 1,588.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 122 | 3 each on two dozens | 7 | Win | 1,591.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 123 | 3 each on two dozens | 29 | Loss | 1,585.00 | 2 | Step 1 |
| 124 | 9 each on two dozens | 21 | Win | 1,594.00 | 1 | Step 2 |
| 125 | 3 each on two dozens | 24 | Win | 1,597.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
| 126 | 3 each on two dozens | 9 | Win | 1,600.00 | 1 | Step 1 |
All the Math and Lilith and Wolfie Arguing About the System (Updated Canon)
American roulette: 38 numbers. A two-dozen bet covers 24 numbers and loses on 14: about 36.84% to lose, 63.16% to hit. A one-dozen bet covers 12 numbers and loses on 26: about 68.42% to lose, 31.58% to hit. Version X Stage 1 is two two-dozen bets, then four one-dozen bets. Stage 2 is one two-dozen bet, then five one-dozen bets. Stage 3 is one two-dozen bet, then six one-dozen bets. A loss does not change the odds of the next spin.
Stage 1 (steps 1–6)
Losing the whole stage means both two-dozen bets miss and then all four one-dozen bets miss:
P(Stage 1 bust) = (14/38)2 × (26/38)4 ≈ 2.97%
P(Stage 1 wins somewhere in the six steps) = 1 − 0.0297 ≈ 97.03%
Step 1
Bet: two dozens, $3 each (total $6). 14 losing numbers.
P(lose Step 1) = 14/38 ≈ 36.84%
Win → net +$3, reset to Step 1. This is where about 63.16% of Stage 1 sequences end. Lose → Step 2.
Step 2
Bet: two dozens, $9 each (total $18). Same 14 losing numbers.
P(lose Steps 1 and 2) = (14/38)2 ≈ 13.57%
Win → net +$3 ($9 minus the $6 already lost), reset. About 23.27% of sequences win here. Lose → Step 3.
Step 3
Bet: $14 on the first dozen. 26 losing numbers.
P(lose Steps 1–3) = (14/38)2 × (26/38) ≈ 9.29%
Win → net +$4 ($28 minus the $24 already lost), reset. About 4.29% of sequences win here. Lose → Step 4.
Step 4
Bet: $21 on the first dozen. Same 26 losing numbers.
P(lose Steps 1–4) = (14/38)2 × (26/38)2 ≈ 6.35%
Win → net +$4 ($42 minus the $38 already lost), reset. About 2.93% of sequences win here. Lose → Step 5.
Step 5
Bet: $28 on the first dozen.
P(lose Steps 1–5) = (14/38)2 × (26/38)3 ≈ 4.35%
Win → net −$3 ($56 minus the $59 already lost), reset. About 2.01% of sequences win here. The spin pays, and the sequence is still down $3. Lose → Step 6.
Step 6
Bet: $42 on the first dozen.
P(lose Steps 1–6) = (14/38)2 × (26/38)4 ≈ 2.97%
Win → net −$3 ($84 minus the $87 already lost), reset. About 1.37% of sequences win here. Lose → the six bets have cost $129 (6+18+14+21+28+42). Set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 90, then Step 8.
Stage 2 (steps 8–13)
One two-dozen bet ($10 each), then five one-dozen bets ($16, $24, $36, $54, $81). Losing the whole pass:
P(Stage 2 pass bust) = (14/38) × (26/38)5 ≈ 5.52%
P(Stage 2 wins somewhere in the pass) ≈ 94.48%
Chance of still being in the pass after each loss:
- Lost Step 8: 36.84%
- Lost Steps 8–9: 25.21%
- Lost Steps 8–10: 17.25%
- Lost Steps 8–11: 11.80%
- Lost Steps 8–12: 8.07%
- Lost Steps 8–13: 5.52%
A win on Steps 8–13 returns to Step 1 only when the bank is above bank_needed_to_reset. Otherwise the ladder repeats Step 8. A loss on Step 13 sets bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 300 and moves to Step 15.
Stage 3 (steps 15–21)
One two-dozen bet ($25 each), then six one-dozen bets ($40, $60, $90, $130, $190, $250). Losing the whole pass:
P(Stage 3 pass bust) = (14/38) × (26/38)6 ≈ 3.78%
P(Stage 3 wins somewhere in the pass) ≈ 96.22%
That 3.78% / 96.22% pair is the old seven-step ladder (one two-dozen bet and six one-dozen bets). On this version it belongs to Stage 3 only. Stage 1 is the 2.97% bust above.
Chance of still being in the pass after each loss:
- Lost Step 15: 36.84%
- Lost Steps 15–16: 25.21%
- Lost Steps 15–17: 17.25%
- Lost Steps 15–18: 11.80%
- Lost Steps 15–19: 8.07%
- Lost Steps 15–20: 5.52%
- Lost Steps 15–21: 3.78%
A win on Steps 15–21 returns to Step 1 only when the bank is above bank_needed_to_reset. Otherwise the ladder repeats Step 15. A loss on Step 21 returns to Step 15. It does not end the game.