Roulette Wolfie Ladder version D - Last updated: October 2, 2026

86% win rate based on all 8,471 runs ( SEE results for more details )



update 10/01/2026: removed the waiting for a win for stage 1.5 and stage 2.5 seemed to make no notibale difference in the win rate. also added database to save the runs and display the win rate on the results page. Also removed step 7 to keep the system simple and fast we have a 5% chance of hitting this but we will recover it. see version A for having that step included back in.

update 10/02/2026: removed step 14 to keep the system simple and fast we have a 5% chance of hitting this but we will recover it. see version B for having that step included back in. removed step 22 ( see version C for having that step included back in) if loosing step 21 and not bankrupt reset the ladder and start over on stage 3 . Reason being that step 22 had a 31% chance of winning but the chances of winning the stages in the ladder 10 times is 68% . you have a better chance of getting the money back doing the ladder.

People keep misunderstanding what I actually built, so here is the truth in plain English: I am not a gambler — I am a programmer. I did not sit there playing 10,000 roulette games like some guy with a lucky rabbit foot. I wrote a program that runs the entire Wolfie Ladder — all 3 stages, all 21 steps — across 50 to 300 simultaneous games on a single page, and then I repeated that whole batch 10,000 times. That is how you get a real statistical picture. That is how you reach a ~90% win rate. Not vibes. Not superstition. Not “progressions” like Fibonacci that blow up the moment variance sneezes. The Wolfie Ladder is engineered to survive streaks, recover losses, and beat the distribution curve — and I tested it by running 10,000+ full sequences in under 30 minutes, not by hand playing one spin at a time. If people think I sat there clicking red/black like a zombie, they really do not understand who they are talking to. When i first made this system luck i guess was on my side because the first few hundred times i was playing it i was winning at a rate of 91% of the time but as i kept running it more and more times the win rate started to drop and now it is at ~80% . And here’s the part people really don’t understand: the Wolfie Ladder wins even when the game‑level win rate is losing. For example — in one of the sequences on the active tab, the system played 92 total games. Out of those:
38 wins
54 losses
Including a brutal streak where it lost every single bet from #52 through #67
That’s 16 consecutive losses in the middle of the run.
And despite that? Despite losing more games than it won? Despite eating a variance spike that would vaporize Fibonacci, Martingale, or any “pro gambler” strategy?
It still finished the sequence up +$100.
That’s the point. The Ladder doesn’t care about “win more than you lose.” It cares about sequence structure, distribution recovery, and controlled escalation. It’s engineered to survive streaks, absorb damage, and still exit the sequence profitable — even when the raw win/loss ratio looks terrible.
This is why the system works. This is why the win rate stabilizes around ~78.2% across 10,000 full trials. Not because it wins every spin — but because it wins the sequence.
THE WOLFIE LADDER SYSTEM (Step-by-Step) CLICK HERE IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE REASONING BEHIND THESE STEPS
STAGE 1:
1️⃣ Bet on two dozens, $4 each. If win → reset ladder, back to Step 1. If lose → Step 2. ( net win at this step is $4 )
2️⃣ Bet $6 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 3. ( net win at this step is $4 )
3️⃣ Bet $9 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 4. ( net win at this step is $4 )
4️⃣ Bet $13 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 5. ( net win at this step is $3 )
5️⃣ Bet $20 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 6. ( net win at this step is $4 )
6️⃣ Bet $30 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 90, then Step 8. ( net win at this step is $4 )
7️⃣(Removed in Version B. It only increased Stage‑1 probability by ~2%, but added a heavy 45‑unit cost. Cutting it keeps the system simpler, faster, and far less volatile. We still have a ~5% chance of hitting this loss, but the ladder easily recovers it.)
STAGE 2:
8️⃣ Bet $10 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 8. Lose → Step 9. ( net win at this step is $10 )
9️⃣ Bet $16 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 10. ( net win at this step is $12 )
🔟 Bet $24 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 11. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣1️⃣ Bet $36 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 12. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣2️⃣ Bet $54 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 13. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣3️⃣ Bet $81 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 300, then Step 15. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣4️⃣ (Removed in Version C. It only increased Stage‑2 probability by ~2%, but added a heavy 122‑unit cost.
STAGE 3:
1️⃣5️⃣ Bet $25 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 15. Lose → Step 16.
1️⃣6️⃣ Bet $40 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 17.
1️⃣7️⃣ Bet $60 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 18.
1️⃣8️⃣ Bet $90 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 19.
1️⃣9️⃣ Bet $130 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 20.
2️⃣0️⃣ Bet $190 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 21.
2️⃣1️⃣ Bet $250 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 15.

Roulette wheel
This system was build using 80 diffent ai agents across 8 LLM models to test the best possible system for roulette using lupopedia AI platform.
The programmer captain wolfie (Eric) was too board playing just one game at a time so programmed this to play up to 500 games all at once, that way can play thousands of times a minute and find the best stratagy that holds up . .
Want the full story? Check out the Patreon post for the complete dialog between Captain Wolfie, Grok, and the mischievous Lilith!

Why my versions are A, B, C instead of major.minor.patch Because the traditional versioning system — major.minor.patch — is meaningless for what I’m doing here. I’m not shipping software releases. I’m iterating behavioral variants of a probability engine. Each version (A, B, C… all the way to ZZ if I want) represents a distinct ladder logic, a distinct recovery pattern, a distinct volatility profile, and a distinct mathematical personality. These aren’t “patches.” These aren’t “minor updates.” These are forks of logic. Version A behaves one way. Version B behaves another way. Version C might remove a step, add a step, rebalance a stage, or change the volatility curve entirely. Using semantic versioning (4.0.96, 4.0.97, etc.) would imply these are incremental changes to the same system — but they’re not. They’re parallel universes. So I use lettered versions because: They’re simple They’re human-readable They reflect behavior, not “patch level” They let me branch logic infinitely (A → B → C → … → Z → AA → AB → … → ZZ) They match how I actually think about the system In other words: Version A is a creature. Version B is a different creature. Version C is another creature. Letters make more sense for creatures than numbers.

Probability Reality Check

American wheel dozen loss probability stays the same on every spin: about 68.42% to lose, 31.58% to hit your dozen. Even after 10 or 15 losses in a row, the next spin is still roughly 1/3 to win, 2/3 to lose. This ladder doesn't pretend the odds improve—it only adjusts stake size so that, when you do finally win, you aim to recover with the progression. The house edge is still there; this is about controlled exposure, not guaranteed profit.

500-Round Simulation (American Wheel Model)

MySQL connected to collab52_salessyntax on localhost. This run was saved to wolfie_ladder_runs.

Every time this page loads it simulates 500 games using the WOLFIE Ladder exactly as defined here or stops if you win $100+ How did you do? If the run ended in the cliff, click here to try again and generate a fresh 500-game sequence. Saved runs are listed on wolfie_ladder_results.php.

Final Bank
59.00
Net Units
-1,441.00
Wins / Losses
160 / 242
Max Step Reached
21
Run Status
Active
Table Limit Hit
No
Bank Depleted
No

Below is one 500-bet run. Each roll uses the real American wheel odds (12/38 for single dozen). Every time a win hits, we reset or loop based on rules.

# Bet Wheel Result Bank Next Step Mode
1 4 each on two dozens 1 Win 1,504.00 1 Step 1
2 4 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,496.00 2 Step 1
3 6 on first dozen 8 Win 1,508.00 1 Step 2
4 4 each on two dozens 36 Loss 1,500.00 2 Step 1
5 6 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,494.00 3 Step 2
6 9 on first dozen 11 Win 1,512.00 1 Step 3
7 4 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,504.00 2 Step 1
8 6 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,498.00 3 Step 2
9 9 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,489.00 4 Step 3
10 13 on first dozen 9 Win 1,515.00 1 Step 4
11 4 each on two dozens 23 Win 1,519.00 1 Step 1
12 4 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,523.00 1 Step 1
13 4 each on two dozens 7 Win 1,527.00 1 Step 1
14 4 each on two dozens 17 Win 1,531.00 1 Step 1
15 4 each on two dozens 16 Win 1,535.00 1 Step 1
16 4 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,527.00 2 Step 1
17 6 on first dozen 2 Win 1,539.00 1 Step 2
18 4 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,531.00 2 Step 1
19 6 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,525.00 3 Step 2
20 9 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,516.00 4 Step 3
21 13 on first dozen 4 Win 1,542.00 1 Step 4
22 4 each on two dozens 7 Win 1,546.00 1 Step 1
23 4 each on two dozens 28 Loss 1,538.00 2 Step 1
24 6 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,532.00 3 Step 2
25 9 on first dozen 33 Loss 1,523.00 4 Step 3
26 13 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,510.00 5 Step 4
27 20 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,490.00 6 Step 5
28 30 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,460.00 8 Step 6
29 10 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,440.00 9 Step 8
30 16 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,424.00 10 Step 9
31 24 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,400.00 11 Step 10
32 36 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,364.00 12 Step 11
33 54 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,310.00 13 Step 12
34 81 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,229.00 15 Step 13
35 25 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,254.00 15 Step 15
36 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,204.00 16 Step 15
37 40 on first dozen 12 Win 1,284.00 15 Step 16
38 25 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,309.00 15 Step 15
39 25 each on two dozens 22 Win 1,334.00 15 Step 15
40 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 1,284.00 16 Step 15
41 40 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,244.00 17 Step 16
42 60 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,184.00 18 Step 17
43 90 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,094.00 19 Step 18
44 130 on first dozen 13 Loss 964.00 20 Step 19
45 190 on first dozen 7 Win 1,344.00 15 Step 20
46 25 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,294.00 16 Step 15
47 40 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,254.00 17 Step 16
48 60 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,194.00 18 Step 17
49 90 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,104.00 19 Step 18
50 130 on first dozen 27 Loss 974.00 20 Step 19
51 190 on first dozen 9 Win 1,354.00 15 Step 20
52 25 each on two dozens 32 Loss 1,304.00 16 Step 15
53 40 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,264.00 17 Step 16
54 60 on first dozen 7 Win 1,384.00 15 Step 17
55 25 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,409.00 15 Step 15
56 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,359.00 16 Step 15
57 40 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,319.00 17 Step 16
58 60 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,259.00 18 Step 17
59 90 on first dozen 33 Loss 1,169.00 19 Step 18
60 130 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,039.00 20 Step 19
61 190 on first dozen 36 Loss 849.00 21 Step 20
62 250 on first dozen 30 Loss 599.00 15 Step 21
63 25 each on two dozens 10 Win 624.00 15 Step 15
64 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 649.00 15 Step 15
65 25 each on two dozens 7 Win 674.00 15 Step 15
66 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 699.00 15 Step 15
67 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 649.00 16 Step 15
68 40 on first dozen 1 Win 729.00 15 Step 16
69 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 679.00 16 Step 15
70 40 on first dozen 14 Loss 639.00 17 Step 16
71 60 on first dozen 11 Win 759.00 15 Step 17
72 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 709.00 16 Step 15
73 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 669.00 17 Step 16
74 60 on first dozen 0 Loss 609.00 18 Step 17
75 90 on first dozen 1 Win 789.00 15 Step 18
76 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 739.00 16 Step 15
77 40 on first dozen 4 Win 819.00 15 Step 16
78 25 each on two dozens 19 Win 844.00 15 Step 15
79 25 each on two dozens 25 Loss 794.00 16 Step 15
80 40 on first dozen 7 Win 874.00 15 Step 16
81 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 824.00 16 Step 15
82 40 on first dozen 9 Win 904.00 15 Step 16
83 25 each on two dozens 10 Win 929.00 15 Step 15
84 25 each on two dozens 32 Loss 879.00 16 Step 15
85 40 on first dozen 14 Loss 839.00 17 Step 16
86 60 on first dozen 35 Loss 779.00 18 Step 17
87 90 on first dozen 0 Loss 689.00 19 Step 18
88 130 on first dozen 25 Loss 559.00 20 Step 19
89 190 on first dozen 2 Win 939.00 15 Step 20
90 25 each on two dozens 15 Win 964.00 15 Step 15
91 25 each on two dozens 15 Win 989.00 15 Step 15
92 25 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,014.00 15 Step 15
93 25 each on two dozens 25 Loss 964.00 16 Step 15
94 40 on first dozen 20 Loss 924.00 17 Step 16
95 60 on first dozen 30 Loss 864.00 18 Step 17
96 90 on first dozen 28 Loss 774.00 19 Step 18
97 130 on first dozen 0 Loss 644.00 20 Step 19
98 190 on first dozen 4 Win 1,024.00 15 Step 20
99 25 each on two dozens 29 Loss 974.00 16 Step 15
100 40 on first dozen 27 Loss 934.00 17 Step 16
101 60 on first dozen 27 Loss 874.00 18 Step 17
102 90 on first dozen 20 Loss 784.00 19 Step 18
103 130 on first dozen 19 Loss 654.00 20 Step 19
104 190 on first dozen 4 Win 1,034.00 15 Step 20
105 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 984.00 16 Step 15
106 40 on first dozen 35 Loss 944.00 17 Step 16
107 60 on first dozen 9 Win 1,064.00 15 Step 17
108 25 each on two dozens 3 Win 1,089.00 15 Step 15
109 25 each on two dozens 12 Win 1,114.00 15 Step 15
110 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,139.00 15 Step 15
111 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,164.00 15 Step 15
112 25 each on two dozens 29 Loss 1,114.00 16 Step 15
113 40 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,074.00 17 Step 16
114 60 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,014.00 18 Step 17
115 90 on first dozen 25 Loss 924.00 19 Step 18
116 130 on first dozen 27 Loss 794.00 20 Step 19
117 190 on first dozen 4 Win 1,174.00 15 Step 20
118 25 each on two dozens 21 Win 1,199.00 15 Step 15
119 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,149.00 16 Step 15
120 40 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,109.00 17 Step 16
121 60 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,049.00 18 Step 17
122 90 on first dozen 16 Loss 959.00 19 Step 18
123 130 on first dozen 18 Loss 829.00 20 Step 19
124 190 on first dozen 16 Loss 639.00 21 Step 20
125 250 on first dozen 26 Loss 389.00 15 Step 21
126 25 each on two dozens 29 Loss 339.00 16 Step 15
127 40 on first dozen 3 Win 419.00 15 Step 16
128 25 each on two dozens 6 Win 444.00 15 Step 15
129 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 394.00 16 Step 15
130 40 on first dozen 36 Loss 354.00 17 Step 16
131 60 on first dozen 8 Win 474.00 15 Step 17
132 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 499.00 15 Step 15
133 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 449.00 16 Step 15
134 40 on first dozen 12 Win 529.00 15 Step 16
135 25 each on two dozens 4 Win 554.00 15 Step 15
136 25 each on two dozens 11 Win 579.00 15 Step 15
137 25 each on two dozens 19 Win 604.00 15 Step 15
138 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 629.00 15 Step 15
139 25 each on two dozens 17 Win 654.00 15 Step 15
140 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 679.00 15 Step 15
141 25 each on two dozens 22 Win 704.00 15 Step 15
142 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 729.00 15 Step 15
143 25 each on two dozens 32 Loss 679.00 16 Step 15
144 40 on first dozen 20 Loss 639.00 17 Step 16
145 60 on first dozen 13 Loss 579.00 18 Step 17
146 90 on first dozen 3 Win 759.00 15 Step 18
147 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 709.00 16 Step 15
148 40 on first dozen 9 Win 789.00 15 Step 16
149 25 each on two dozens 28 Loss 739.00 16 Step 15
150 40 on first dozen 20 Loss 699.00 17 Step 16
151 60 on first dozen 1 Win 819.00 15 Step 17
152 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 769.00 16 Step 15
153 40 on first dozen 13 Loss 729.00 17 Step 16
154 60 on first dozen 34 Loss 669.00 18 Step 17
155 90 on first dozen 2 Win 849.00 15 Step 18
156 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 799.00 16 Step 15
157 40 on first dozen 18 Loss 759.00 17 Step 16
158 60 on first dozen 19 Loss 699.00 18 Step 17
159 90 on first dozen 12 Win 879.00 15 Step 18
160 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 829.00 16 Step 15
161 40 on first dozen 16 Loss 789.00 17 Step 16
162 60 on first dozen 1 Win 909.00 15 Step 17
163 25 each on two dozens 20 Win 934.00 15 Step 15
164 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 884.00 16 Step 15
165 40 on first dozen 00 Loss 844.00 17 Step 16
166 60 on first dozen 12 Win 964.00 15 Step 17
167 25 each on two dozens 9 Win 989.00 15 Step 15
168 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 939.00 16 Step 15
169 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 899.00 17 Step 16
170 60 on first dozen 1 Win 1,019.00 15 Step 17
171 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 969.00 16 Step 15
172 40 on first dozen 3 Win 1,049.00 15 Step 16
173 25 each on two dozens 20 Win 1,074.00 15 Step 15
174 25 each on two dozens 16 Win 1,099.00 15 Step 15
175 25 each on two dozens 26 Loss 1,049.00 16 Step 15
176 40 on first dozen 8 Win 1,129.00 15 Step 16
177 25 each on two dozens 15 Win 1,154.00 15 Step 15
178 25 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,179.00 15 Step 15
179 25 each on two dozens 32 Loss 1,129.00 16 Step 15
180 40 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,089.00 17 Step 16
181 60 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,029.00 18 Step 17
182 90 on first dozen 29 Loss 939.00 19 Step 18
183 130 on first dozen 36 Loss 809.00 20 Step 19
184 190 on first dozen 1 Win 1,189.00 15 Step 20
185 25 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,214.00 15 Step 15
186 25 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,164.00 16 Step 15
187 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,124.00 17 Step 16
188 60 on first dozen 1 Win 1,244.00 15 Step 17
189 25 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,269.00 15 Step 15
190 25 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,294.00 15 Step 15
191 25 each on two dozens 18 Win 1,319.00 15 Step 15
192 25 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,344.00 15 Step 15
193 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,369.00 15 Step 15
194 25 each on two dozens 18 Win 1,394.00 15 Step 15
195 25 each on two dozens 17 Win 1,419.00 15 Step 15
196 25 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,369.00 16 Step 15
197 40 on first dozen 7 Win 1,449.00 15 Step 16
198 25 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,399.00 16 Step 15
199 40 on first dozen 4 Win 1,479.00 15 Step 16
200 25 each on two dozens 17 Win 1,504.00 15 Step 15
201 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 1,454.00 16 Step 15
202 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,414.00 17 Step 16
203 60 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,354.00 18 Step 17
204 90 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,264.00 19 Step 18
205 130 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,134.00 20 Step 19
206 190 on first dozen 23 Loss 944.00 21 Step 20
207 250 on first dozen 5 Win 1,444.00 15 Step 21
208 25 each on two dozens 12 Win 1,469.00 15 Step 15
209 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,419.00 16 Step 15
210 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,379.00 17 Step 16
211 60 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,319.00 18 Step 17
212 90 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,229.00 19 Step 18
213 130 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,099.00 20 Step 19
214 190 on first dozen 8 Win 1,479.00 15 Step 20
215 25 each on two dozens 3 Win 1,504.00 15 Step 15
216 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,454.00 16 Step 15
217 40 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,414.00 17 Step 16
218 60 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,354.00 18 Step 17
219 90 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,264.00 19 Step 18
220 130 on first dozen 33 Loss 1,134.00 20 Step 19
221 190 on first dozen 26 Loss 944.00 21 Step 20
222 250 on first dozen 4 Win 1,444.00 15 Step 21
223 25 each on two dozens 1 Win 1,469.00 15 Step 15
224 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,419.00 16 Step 15
225 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,379.00 17 Step 16
226 60 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,319.00 18 Step 17
227 90 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,229.00 19 Step 18
228 130 on first dozen 32 Loss 1,099.00 20 Step 19
229 190 on first dozen 15 Loss 909.00 21 Step 20
230 250 on first dozen 24 Loss 659.00 15 Step 21
231 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 609.00 16 Step 15
232 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 569.00 17 Step 16
233 60 on first dozen 24 Loss 509.00 18 Step 17
234 90 on first dozen 20 Loss 419.00 19 Step 18
235 130 on first dozen 5 Win 679.00 15 Step 19
236 25 each on two dozens 3 Win 704.00 15 Step 15
237 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 729.00 15 Step 15
238 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 679.00 16 Step 15
239 40 on first dozen 19 Loss 639.00 17 Step 16
240 60 on first dozen 29 Loss 579.00 18 Step 17
241 90 on first dozen 5 Win 759.00 15 Step 18
242 25 each on two dozens 18 Win 784.00 15 Step 15
243 25 each on two dozens 29 Loss 734.00 16 Step 15
244 40 on first dozen 36 Loss 694.00 17 Step 16
245 60 on first dozen 3 Win 814.00 15 Step 17
246 25 each on two dozens 33 Loss 764.00 16 Step 15
247 40 on first dozen 18 Loss 724.00 17 Step 16
248 60 on first dozen 29 Loss 664.00 18 Step 17
249 90 on first dozen 35 Loss 574.00 19 Step 18
250 130 on first dozen 24 Loss 444.00 20 Step 19
251 190 on first dozen 27 Loss 254.00 21 Step 20
252 250 on first dozen 6 Win 754.00 15 Step 21
253 25 each on two dozens 3 Win 779.00 15 Step 15
254 25 each on two dozens 31 Loss 729.00 16 Step 15
255 40 on first dozen 21 Loss 689.00 17 Step 16
256 60 on first dozen 1 Win 809.00 15 Step 17
257 25 each on two dozens 8 Win 834.00 15 Step 15
258 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 859.00 15 Step 15
259 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 884.00 15 Step 15
260 25 each on two dozens 32 Loss 834.00 16 Step 15
261 40 on first dozen 22 Loss 794.00 17 Step 16
262 60 on first dozen 27 Loss 734.00 18 Step 17
263 90 on first dozen 00 Loss 644.00 19 Step 18
264 130 on first dozen 32 Loss 514.00 20 Step 19
265 190 on first dozen 22 Loss 324.00 21 Step 20
266 250 on first dozen 6 Win 824.00 15 Step 21
267 25 each on two dozens 10 Win 849.00 15 Step 15
268 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 799.00 16 Step 15
269 40 on first dozen 21 Loss 759.00 17 Step 16
270 60 on first dozen 16 Loss 699.00 18 Step 17
271 90 on first dozen 5 Win 879.00 15 Step 18
272 25 each on two dozens 28 Loss 829.00 16 Step 15
273 40 on first dozen 15 Loss 789.00 17 Step 16
274 60 on first dozen 3 Win 909.00 15 Step 17
275 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 934.00 15 Step 15
276 25 each on two dozens 31 Loss 884.00 16 Step 15
277 40 on first dozen 13 Loss 844.00 17 Step 16
278 60 on first dozen 3 Win 964.00 15 Step 17
279 25 each on two dozens 18 Win 989.00 15 Step 15
280 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 939.00 16 Step 15
281 40 on first dozen 9 Win 1,019.00 15 Step 16
282 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 969.00 16 Step 15
283 40 on first dozen 23 Loss 929.00 17 Step 16
284 60 on first dozen 5 Win 1,049.00 15 Step 17
285 25 each on two dozens 22 Win 1,074.00 15 Step 15
286 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,024.00 16 Step 15
287 40 on first dozen 00 Loss 984.00 17 Step 16
288 60 on first dozen 12 Win 1,104.00 15 Step 17
289 25 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,129.00 15 Step 15
290 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,079.00 16 Step 15
291 40 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,039.00 17 Step 16
292 60 on first dozen 4 Win 1,159.00 15 Step 17
293 25 each on two dozens 12 Win 1,184.00 15 Step 15
294 25 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,134.00 16 Step 15
295 40 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,094.00 17 Step 16
296 60 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,034.00 18 Step 17
297 90 on first dozen 2 Win 1,214.00 15 Step 18
298 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 1,164.00 16 Step 15
299 40 on first dozen 5 Win 1,244.00 15 Step 16
300 25 each on two dozens 32 Loss 1,194.00 16 Step 15
301 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,154.00 17 Step 16
302 60 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,094.00 18 Step 17
303 90 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,004.00 19 Step 18
304 130 on first dozen 7 Win 1,264.00 15 Step 19
305 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,214.00 16 Step 15
306 40 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,174.00 17 Step 16
307 60 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,114.00 18 Step 17
308 90 on first dozen 4 Win 1,294.00 15 Step 18
309 25 each on two dozens 14 Win 1,319.00 15 Step 15
310 25 each on two dozens 7 Win 1,344.00 15 Step 15
311 25 each on two dozens 29 Loss 1,294.00 16 Step 15
312 40 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,254.00 17 Step 16
313 60 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,194.00 18 Step 17
314 90 on first dozen 10 Win 1,374.00 15 Step 18
315 25 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,324.00 16 Step 15
316 40 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,284.00 17 Step 16
317 60 on first dozen 7 Win 1,404.00 15 Step 17
318 25 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,354.00 16 Step 15
319 40 on first dozen 12 Win 1,434.00 15 Step 16
320 25 each on two dozens 15 Win 1,459.00 15 Step 15
321 25 each on two dozens 15 Win 1,484.00 15 Step 15
322 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,434.00 16 Step 15
323 40 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,394.00 17 Step 16
324 60 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,334.00 18 Step 17
325 90 on first dozen 9 Win 1,514.00 15 Step 18
326 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 1,464.00 16 Step 15
327 40 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,424.00 17 Step 16
328 60 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,364.00 18 Step 17
329 90 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,274.00 19 Step 18
330 130 on first dozen 31 Loss 1,144.00 20 Step 19
331 190 on first dozen 20 Loss 954.00 21 Step 20
332 250 on first dozen 20 Loss 704.00 15 Step 21
333 25 each on two dozens 7 Win 729.00 15 Step 15
334 25 each on two dozens 30 Loss 679.00 16 Step 15
335 40 on first dozen 33 Loss 639.00 17 Step 16
336 60 on first dozen 7 Win 759.00 15 Step 17
337 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 784.00 15 Step 15
338 25 each on two dozens 22 Win 809.00 15 Step 15
339 25 each on two dozens 19 Win 834.00 15 Step 15
340 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 784.00 16 Step 15
341 40 on first dozen 24 Loss 744.00 17 Step 16
342 60 on first dozen 29 Loss 684.00 18 Step 17
343 90 on first dozen 26 Loss 594.00 19 Step 18
344 130 on first dozen 4 Win 854.00 15 Step 19
345 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 879.00 15 Step 15
346 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 904.00 15 Step 15
347 25 each on two dozens 14 Win 929.00 15 Step 15
348 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 879.00 16 Step 15
349 40 on first dozen 34 Loss 839.00 17 Step 16
350 60 on first dozen 11 Win 959.00 15 Step 17
351 25 each on two dozens 26 Loss 909.00 16 Step 15
352 40 on first dozen 23 Loss 869.00 17 Step 16
353 60 on first dozen 23 Loss 809.00 18 Step 17
354 90 on first dozen 3 Win 989.00 15 Step 18
355 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,014.00 15 Step 15
356 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,039.00 15 Step 15
357 25 each on two dozens 21 Win 1,064.00 15 Step 15
358 25 each on two dozens 18 Win 1,089.00 15 Step 15
359 25 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,114.00 15 Step 15
360 25 each on two dozens 11 Win 1,139.00 15 Step 15
361 25 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,089.00 16 Step 15
362 40 on first dozen 9 Win 1,169.00 15 Step 16
363 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,119.00 16 Step 15
364 40 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,079.00 17 Step 16
365 60 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,019.00 18 Step 17
366 90 on first dozen 30 Loss 929.00 19 Step 18
367 130 on first dozen 11 Win 1,189.00 15 Step 19
368 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 1,214.00 15 Step 15
369 25 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,164.00 16 Step 15
370 40 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,124.00 17 Step 16
371 60 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,064.00 18 Step 17
372 90 on first dozen 21 Loss 974.00 19 Step 18
373 130 on first dozen 34 Loss 844.00 20 Step 19
374 190 on first dozen 5 Win 1,224.00 15 Step 20
375 25 each on two dozens 1 Win 1,249.00 15 Step 15
376 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,199.00 16 Step 15
377 40 on first dozen 8 Win 1,279.00 15 Step 16
378 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,304.00 15 Step 15
379 25 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,329.00 15 Step 15
380 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 1,279.00 16 Step 15
381 40 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,239.00 17 Step 16
382 60 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,179.00 18 Step 17
383 90 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,089.00 19 Step 18
384 130 on first dozen 7 Win 1,349.00 15 Step 19
385 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,374.00 15 Step 15
386 25 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,324.00 16 Step 15
387 40 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,284.00 17 Step 16
388 60 on first dozen 1 Win 1,404.00 15 Step 17
389 25 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,354.00 16 Step 15
390 40 on first dozen 31 Loss 1,314.00 17 Step 16
391 60 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,254.00 18 Step 17
392 90 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,164.00 19 Step 18
393 130 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,034.00 20 Step 19
394 190 on first dozen 25 Loss 844.00 21 Step 20
395 250 on first dozen 22 Loss 594.00 15 Step 21
396 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 619.00 15 Step 15
397 25 each on two dozens 29 Loss 569.00 16 Step 15
398 40 on first dozen 27 Loss 529.00 17 Step 16
399 60 on first dozen 22 Loss 469.00 18 Step 17
400 90 on first dozen 23 Loss 379.00 19 Step 18
401 130 on first dozen 23 Loss 249.00 20 Step 19
402 190 on first dozen 36 Loss 59.00 21 Step 20

All the Math and Lilith and Wolfie Arguing About the System (Updated Canon)

American roulette: 38 numbers. Dozens pay 2:1. Sequence win chance per ladder is 96.22%. Sequence-failure (7-loss bust) is 3.78%.

Stage 1 (correct probabilities)

Step 1

Bet: two dozens, $4 each (total $8). Lose if the ball lands in the non-covered dozen or 0/00 → 14 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 1:

P(L1) ≈ 36.84%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → go to Step 2.

Step 2

Bet: $6 on the first dozen. Lose if the ball is not in that dozen → 26 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 2 (given you are here):

P(L2) = 68.42%

Probability of losing Steps 1 and 2 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2) = 25.21%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 3.

Step 3

Same loss probability as Step 2.

Probability of losing Steps 1–3 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2 ∩ L3) = 17.25%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 4.

Step 4

Same loss probability again.

Probability of losing Steps 1–4 in a row:

P(L1…L4) = 11.80%

Win → net +$3, reset. Lose → Step 5.

Step 5

Probability of losing Steps 1–5 in a row:

P(L1…L5) = 8.07%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 6.

Step 6

Probability of losing Steps 1–6 in a row:

P(L1…L6) = 5.52%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 7.

Step 7

Probability of losing Steps 1–7 in a row (full sequence bust):

P(L1…L7) = 3.78%

This is the true sequence-failure probability.

P(sequence wins at least once) = 1 − 0.0378 ≈ 0.9622

So the chance of winning the sequence once is 96.22%.

We stop at Step 7 because going to Step 8 would only reduce the sequence-failure probability from about 3.78% to roughly 2.6% — small gain, big extra risk in bet size.

You are now down a total of $131 across the whole ladder (4+4+6+9+13+20+30+45 = 131). Stage 2 is only designed to recover $100, not the full $131, on purpose. By capping the recovery target at $100, the system only needs 10 successful sequences instead of extending the ladder to 13 sequences, which would chase the full $131.

Mathematically, the chance of winning all 10 recovery sequences is:

P(10 wins) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684 (68.4%)

If you tried to recover the entire $131 and needed 13 sequences:

P(13 wins) = (0.9622)13 ≈ 0.609 (60.9%)

The recovery target stays at $100 so the ladder is not stretched to 13 steps. A 68.4% chance over 10 sequences is better than a 60.9% chance over 13.

Compounding sequences

Compounding sequences means multiplying the probability of success across repeated independent attempts. Since the chance of winning a single sequence is 96.22%, the chance of winning it multiple times is (0.9622)n.

That is why Stage 1 succeeds only about 38% of the time: a high per-sequence win rate drops sharply when compounded many times.

Stage 1: 25 sequences to win $100

Probability all 25 sequences succeed (no 7-loss bust):

P(Stage 1 success) = p25 ≈ 0.962225 ≈ 0.38 (38%)

About a 38% chance to clear Stage 1 cleanly, not 48%.

Stage 2 (10 sequences)

The system has three stages because even though a single sequence wins 96.22% of the time, stacking many sequences makes a failure streak likely. Stage 1 assumes that somewhere inside those 25 attempts you might hit the 3.78% disaster run, so there is a more aggressive recovery layer.

Stage 2 is designed to win back the $100 loss in 10 successful sequences:

(0.9622)10 = 0.6840

Stage 2 has about a 68% chance of recovering the loss and letting the ladder continue. In play: you win about $50–$60 during normal operation, then eventually hit the rare failure streak and drop $100, then Stage 2 steps in with higher aggression and a shorter climb. Stage 1 succeeds about 38% of the time over 25 sequences; Stage 2 succeeds about 68% of the time over 10 sequences.

Stage 2 uses the same ladder structure as Stage 1 — one two-dozen entry followed by six single-dozen climbs — but the goal is recovery, not profit. Per-sequence success is still p ≈ 0.9622:

P(Stage 2 success) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684

The odds of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2 are based on two independent exposures to the same 7-loss bust pattern:

Independence means you multiply. It does not prevent multiplication.

P(lose both) = P(Stage 1 fails) × P(Stage 2 fails)

P(lose both) = 0.619 × 0.316 ≈ 0.195

About a 19.5% chance of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2. About an 80.5% chance of recovering and continuing.

Stage 3 (22 sequences)

Stage 3 is the deep-recovery layer — the nuclear option after both Stage 1 and Stage 2 fail. At this point you are down about $550, and Stage 3 uses the same ladder structure, but now you need 22 successful sequences to fully recover and reset.

Per-sequence success rate:

p = 0.9622

Probability all 22 sequences succeed:

P(Stage 3 success) = (0.9622)22 ≈ 0.41

Stage 3 success ≈ 41%. About a 41% chance of recovering the remaining loss and allowing the system to continue even after both earlier stages have failed.

Updated combined probability tree (Stage 3 = 22 sequences)

Stage 1 tries to win outright. If it fails, Stage 2 attempts recovery. If that fails, Stage 3 is the final recovery attempt.

Overall survival probability. The system survives (recovers and continues) if any stage succeeds:

P(overall success) = S1 + F1 · S2 + F1 · F2 · S3

= 0.381 + (0.619 · 0.684) + (0.619 · 0.316 · 0.41)

= 0.381 + 0.423 + 0.080 ≈ 0.884

Updated overall survival ≈ 88.4%.

Total collapse only happens if all three stages fail:

P(total collapse) = F1 · F2 · F3 = 0.619 · 0.316 · 0.59 ≈ 0.115

Updated collapse rate ≈ 11.5%.

Given the corrected math, the full three-stage ladder should survive about 88.4% of the time. That is the theoretical probability when Stage 1, Stage 2, and the corrected 22-sequence Stage 3 are treated as one recovery tree. In large-scale simulations — 10,000 full attempts — the real results fall between 78% on the low end and 91% on the high end. That spread is normal: the theoretical survival rate is ~88%, but variance over thousands of trials will always produce fluctuations, especially because each collapse is rare but extremely impactful. The math describes the long-run expectation; the simulator shows the real-world distribution, which consistently lands between 78% and 91%, exactly what you would expect from a system with a theoretical success rate in the high 80s and occasional deep failures that pull the average down.